ICE Actions Hurt our Local Businesses
For many of us, it’s the cruelty and injustice of the ICE roundups that are unacceptable. But for those who are moved only when it affects their pocketbook, here is a report from NPR’s Marketplace Morning detailing how destructive the raids are to local economies:
Overview
Marketplace's Sabri Beneshore interviews Wharton professor Zeke Hernandez on new research measuring the economic fallout of ICE enforcement surges. The core finding: raids don't just scare people from shopping, they pull people out of the workforce, and the damage compounds rather than fades.
Key Findings
Foot traffic collapse: In the current administration's first year, ICE raids in targeted cities caused a drop of over 8 billion unique visits to business locations. This captures both people not showing up to work and people not showing up to shop.
Revenue loss: Up to $14 billion in lost revenue at businesses that sell goods and services.
Persistence: The effects did not fade over time. Not short-term blips.
Small businesses hit hardest: Independent shops absorbed far more damage than large national chains.
Why Small Businesses Suffer Most
No corporate backstop. Independents lack a headquarters to maintain cash flow or subsidize an employee through a downturn. Hernandez calls this the more important explanation.
Enforcement optics. ICE may prefer targeting a corner supermarket over a Walmart or Target, since raiding a large store forces visible shutdowns and worse press. He treats this as secondary.
Nuance and Friction
No shift to online: The interviewer pressed whether activity simply migrates to delivery. Hernandez found the opposite. Use of Uber Eats and Instacart went down after raids. The shock hits labor supply, not just where people spend.
Downward spiral risk: Fewer workers earning means less spending, which forces businesses to cut hiring and inventory, feeding a self-reinforcing decline. This is the mechanism he flags as most dangerous.
Long-Term View
Hernandez argues the lasting damage may exceed the immediate hit. He frames it as "an economy of fear."
A closed business cannot reopen on command. Workers relocate, capital disappears, recovery is slow.
Second-order effects are harder to measure and potentially larger: reduced community investment, less innovation, fewer people willing to bring new ideas, businesses, and products to a location.
The Bottom Line is a Vicious Cycle Harming the Local Econony
The ICE raids create a self-amplifying loop: as their initial negative event triggers further problems,
ICE raid → Fewer workers show up → Less income earned → Less spending → Businesses cut hiring and inventory →
(loops back to) Fewer workers show up